Analysts Suggest That Global EV Sales Will Drop 43 Percent This Year
10 April 2020 - autoevolution
It’s hard to get one’s head around the headline of this article, but that’s exactly what Wood Mackenzie expects to happen in 2020.
COVID-19 and dinosaur juice are projected to eat into the global demand for electric vehicles despite the fact EVs are more popular than ever.
First and foremost, plug-in and EV sales topped 2.2 million in 2019. The percentage mentioned in the title works out at 946,000 electric vehicles, meaning that we'll be lucky if sales will total 1.3 million in 2020. "The uncertainty and fear created by the outbreak have made consumers less inclined to adopt a new technology," said principal analyst Ram Chandrasekaran.
Oil prices have a direct effect on fleet purchasing as well as retail customers, and so far in 2020, the price war has sown uncertainty. Brent is approximately 50 percent down this year even though the Saudis and Russians have ended their back and forth with a serious cutback. On paper, the two parties have agreed to cut production by 10 million barrels a day. OPEC+ is also seeking to reduce as much as 5 million barrels a day from G-20 major economies.
It's also worth highlighting that many traditional automakers that have recently launched EVs – including Ford with the Mustang Mach-E – have yet to start deliveries of those cars. Worse still, the newcomers will have to wait a little longer because Ford and pretty much every automaker out there has idled production to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Some of them have even taken onto themselves to produce ventilators and surgical masks.
Speaking of problems in the supply chain, the lithium needed to produce lithium-ion batteries is also feeling the pain. Looking at the bigger picture, there's no denying that the entire automotive sector will be left with a stiff upper lip at the end of 2020 over the COVID-19 pandemic.
Over in the United States, auto sales dropped by 40 to 50 percent in March 2020. The biggest declines in the first quarter of the year were posted by the MINI brand and Nissan. They are down 35 and 30 percent.